Emerging markets become net creditors.
Emerging markets & outsourcing
One of the wonders - or “conundrums” - of the modern world is that emerging markets are now net creditors for the first time since the asset class was created two decades ago. This reflects one of the stranger features of the global economy. In essence, poor savers in developing countries are currently funding debtors in richer ones. This stands traditional economics on its head. Capital should flow to where it most scarce and earns a higher marginal return, not to where it is most abundant.
Several reasons are usually given to explain this bizarre state of affairs. Burnt by the crises of the 1990s, emerging market borrowers have moved quickly to pay down their foreign debts. The soaring price of commodity exports - be that for oil or copper - has helped them do that. So too has voracious US import demand for goods produced by low cost Asian manufacturers. Malaysia’s foreign reserves of $85bn now dwarf its $25bn of foreign currency debt.
Finally, low western interest rates have driven investors to seek higher returns elsewhere. This has helped emerging countries develop local debt markets and reduce their reliance on hard currency debt - although the difference between the two can blur quickly in a crisis. This has further improved sovereign balance sheets. It has also cut the cost of borrowing sharply. Since 2000, the spread over US Treasuries that emerging markets pay to borrow abroad has more than halved to less than 400 basis points.
The important question is how much of this improvement in spreads is due to prudent economic management by emerging markets themselves as opposed to changes elsewhere? Fitch Ratings estimates less than half. The larger part, it calculates, is due to ultra-low western interest rates, which have fuelled western imports and investor risk appetite. Apply the same logic, only in reverse, and as US rates rise some of the effects that have made emerging countries net creditors should turn around too. Will bankers and investors then still be willing to lend, when emerging market borrowers actually need the money?
Source: John Paul Rathbone/Breakingviews
One of the wonders - or “conundrums” - of the modern world is that emerging markets are now net creditors for the first time since the asset class was created two decades ago. This reflects one of the stranger features of the global economy. In essence, poor savers in developing countries are currently funding debtors in richer ones. This stands traditional economics on its head. Capital should flow to where it most scarce and earns a higher marginal return, not to where it is most abundant.
Several reasons are usually given to explain this bizarre state of affairs. Burnt by the crises of the 1990s, emerging market borrowers have moved quickly to pay down their foreign debts. The soaring price of commodity exports - be that for oil or copper - has helped them do that. So too has voracious US import demand for goods produced by low cost Asian manufacturers. Malaysia’s foreign reserves of $85bn now dwarf its $25bn of foreign currency debt.
Finally, low western interest rates have driven investors to seek higher returns elsewhere. This has helped emerging countries develop local debt markets and reduce their reliance on hard currency debt - although the difference between the two can blur quickly in a crisis. This has further improved sovereign balance sheets. It has also cut the cost of borrowing sharply. Since 2000, the spread over US Treasuries that emerging markets pay to borrow abroad has more than halved to less than 400 basis points.
The important question is how much of this improvement in spreads is due to prudent economic management by emerging markets themselves as opposed to changes elsewhere? Fitch Ratings estimates less than half. The larger part, it calculates, is due to ultra-low western interest rates, which have fuelled western imports and investor risk appetite. Apply the same logic, only in reverse, and as US rates rise some of the effects that have made emerging countries net creditors should turn around too. Will bankers and investors then still be willing to lend, when emerging market borrowers actually need the money?











