Archive for June, 2005

Emerging markets become net creditors.

Emerging markets & outsourcing

One of the wonders - or “conundrums” - of the modern world is that emerging markets are now net creditors for the first time since the asset class was created two decades ago. This reflects one of the stranger features of the global economy. In essence, poor savers in developing countries are currently funding debtors in richer ones. This stands traditional economics on its head. Capital should flow to where it most scarce and earns a higher marginal return, not to where it is most abundant.

Several reasons are usually given to explain this bizarre state of affairs. Burnt by the crises of the 1990s, emerging market borrowers have moved quickly to pay down their foreign debts. The soaring price of commodity exports - be that for oil or copper - has helped them do that. So too has voracious US import demand for goods produced by low cost Asian manufacturers. Malaysia’s foreign reserves of $85bn now dwarf its $25bn of foreign currency debt.

Finally, low western interest rates have driven investors to seek higher returns elsewhere. This has helped emerging countries develop local debt markets and reduce their reliance on hard currency debt - although the difference between the two can blur quickly in a crisis. This has further improved sovereign balance sheets. It has also cut the cost of borrowing sharply. Since 2000, the spread over US Treasuries that emerging markets pay to borrow abroad has more than halved to less than 400 basis points.

The important question is how much of this improvement in spreads is due to prudent economic management by emerging markets themselves as opposed to changes elsewhere? Fitch Ratings estimates less than half. The larger part, it calculates, is due to ultra-low western interest rates, which have fuelled western imports and investor risk appetite. Apply the same logic, only in reverse, and as US rates rise some of the effects that have made emerging countries net creditors should turn around too. Will bankers and investors then still be willing to lend, when emerging market borrowers actually need the money?

Source: John Paul Rathbone/Breakingviews

RSS will be the new digital information revolution

EDITORS VIEWS

RSS is doing to the Web today what the Web has been doing to print for the last several years. That was the frightening thought Matt McAlister, InfoWorld’s VP and general manager, was thinking at that day that InfoWorld’s top news RSS feed received more requests than our home page. We have disintermediated our Web site by offering our news in an easier to access format??..again.

When you Google ?RSS? (Really Simple Syndication) at this moment you will get as many hits as Microsoft or Windows, and that is already over ten times more then general terms like Logistics or Supply Chain or the recent hype bLog. Technical hypes like RFID and WIFI will not get half of the attention as logistics. Another comparison, the term Internet is scoring almost four times more hits.

It is for sure, ?RSS? is the hype of which a lot of people are not aware of its future and today?s impact. Only the existence of the Web did decline the daily subscribers of newspaper for over 6% in the past half year. What will then be the impact of RSS on this? Whoever figures out how to get the masses to embrace RSS will have a monumental impact on this developing digital information revolution.

And will this new standard in the digital information revolution have its impact in the area of logistics and supply chain?

It certainly will. I am not talking about getting logistics information feeds like f.e. eLogistics TrendwatcH has. No, it will be ?in my opinion- play an important role in all chain collaboration activities. It will be of crucial importance in sharing RFID tag information. How? That is to figure out by the techs. But in the end, the only thing that counts is:

?Whoever figures out how to apply the use of RSS in Supply Chains, will ride with the this fast developing digital information revolution and finally will have a monumental impact on the future of logistics and supply chain.?

Will this be our chance to become millionars?

Maersk starts bidding period on P&O Nedlloyd

Mergers & acquisitions

A.P. M?-Maersk did start yesterday with his bid on outstanding shares is P&O Nedlloyd. The public offer of in total 2,3 milliard Euro succeeds the finalization of the due diligence. Maersk will declare the offer unconditional, as at least 70% of the shares has been tendered under the offer.

When the Danish Shipper acquires 95% of the shares, P&O Nedlloyd will de-noted at the Amsterdam Stock Exchange. The acceptance period began on 13 June 2005 and ends on 4 August 2005 at 15:00 hours. P&O, owner of 25% of the shares, did already accept the offer last Friday.

The Offer Memorandum also informs us that the P&O Nedlloyd’s CEO Philip Green will receive 5,4 million Pound Sterling (8 million Euro’s), when his company will be acquired by Maersk. The value of his 15.239 shares P&O Nedlloyd is over 850.000 Euro’s. CFO David Robbie will receive 2,32 million Pound Sterling. The value of his packet of shares is over 250.000 Euro’s

Logistics are critical to increase US export

Global Trade & Logistics

Even if a company automates its global trade management and reduces complexity, the speed and flexibility of its supply chain can still be hampered by a country’s infrastructure and logistics services. In particular, improvements in logistics services are critical to increasing U.S. exports, according to a new study by the United States International Trade Commission.

The Commission?s econometric analysis demonstrates that both U.S. merchandise exports and foreign merchandise exports transshipped through the United States are sensitive to the availability and quality of logistic services in the importing country.

Lower levels of logistics-related trade impediments - especially with respect to airport, seaport, and customs procedures - in the importing country are associated with higher U.S. merchandise exports. The effects on trade are most robust for U.S. airborne exports, which tend to be time-sensitive, higher-valued exports.

For countries that have the weakest logistic services environments, as measured by responses to the supplier questionnaire developed for this report, analysis shows that the reduction or removal of impediments could lead to significant percentage increases in U.S. merchandise exports.

Among other factors, the study shows a correlation between improved quality of airport logistics and higher U.S. exports.

Read the full report:

Logistics Services:

An Overview of the Global Market and Potential Effects of Removing Trade Impediments

DHL Plans RFID Tags For Every Package It Ships

Supply Chain Technology & RFID

DHL International GmbH this month starts developing a global IT infrastructure that will let it affix a radio-frequency identification tag on every package it ships by 2015. The goal: gain tighter control of shipments, cut costs, and improve operating performance by reducing paperwork and data collection.

DHL’s plan to tag every package it handles is a lofty one since the transportation and logistics arm of Deutsche Post World Net ships more than a billion packages a year. This week at DHL’s Brussels facility, representatives from the company’s 8,000-employee IT-services division plan to join marketing, purchasing, and operations staff to discuss how the company needs to change its global IT infrastructure to support the effort.

DHL began testing RFID in 1998 and has since conducted 20 trials with passive and active technology. UPS Inc., by comparison, says it has conducted three big tests, such as using RFID to replace bar codes on packages.

Microsoft Previews RFID Infrastructure

Supply Chain Technology & RFID

Microsoft this week followed IBM and Oracle in publicly committing to delivering infrastructure software to support radio frequency identification (RFID) scenarios. Senior vice president of server applications Paul Flessner gave a preview of Microsoft’s .NET-based implementation of RFID infrastructure software during a keynote at the Microsoft TechEd 2005 show here. “I think you should expect it in the 2006 timeframe,” he said.

Microsoft executives describe the current market as primarily consisting of niche players who create entire solutions to meet a vertical industry need. Each of those solutions consists of the RFID reader appliances; the server middleware that translates, interprets and routes the data; and the vertical industry-specific application that end users interact with. Where Microsoft sees a role for itself is in replacing the custom-coded middleware stack that handles similar tasks in nearly every RFID implementation but tends to be written separately for each solution.

Those middleware tasks include accepting data from the RFID devices; translating the device data formats into a format the business application can understand; and triggering events and messages. Solution providers can also let Microsoft worry about thorny data quality problems common to many RFID implementations.

There are three ways Microsoft’s RFID technology will hit the market:

First, Microsoft hopes to license the technology to vertical industry solution providers, saving them the trouble of writing their own middleware application code so they can focus their development resources on the business application.

Second, Microsoft will ship its RFID technology in its own Microsoft Business Solution products. Essentially in that case, the MBS division will be like any vertical industry solution provider — inserting Microsoft’s common RFID technology into their vertical-specific business applications. Microsoft will start that wave with an Axapta release next year. Other logical applications in the MBS portfolio for RFID-enablement are Navision and Great Plain.

Third, Microsoft will license the RFID middleware as a server product available to enterprise customers who want to build their own custom business applications using RFID.

Source: Redmond Report / Scott Bekker & Becky Nagel

EU and China in textile truce

Global Trade & Logistics

The European Union and China on Friday stepped back from a potentially bitter trade dispute by negotiating a three-year “transitional arrangement” for the import of Chinese textiles to Europe. The two sides agreed to limit the increase in Chinese textile imports in each of the next three years before the trade is fully liberalised in 2008.

The eleventh-hour deal followed a tense day of talks between Bo Xilai, China’s commerce minister, and Peter Mandelson, the EU trade commissioner, who had threatened to impose new trade quotas on two types of Chinese imports. The immediate consequence of the deal is that the EU will suspend planned sanctions against two categories of exports, flax yarn and tee-shirts. Those temporary curbs had been due to come into force as early as Saturday.

The EU-China deal could put pressure on Washington to reach a similar agreement with Beijing. Washington’s decision to re-introduce quotas has also exposed a clear split in US industry, with retailers launching legal action against sanctions that would limit their access to cheap Chinese clothing. In a swipe against the US, Mr Bo said: “Unlike some other countries, the EU didn’t take unilateral steps against China, but discussed the issue in a friendly manner.”


Source: Financial Times

UK Port operator agrees eur771m deal

Mergers & acquisitions

The UK’s second biggest port operator (Port of Liverpool) has agreed a eur771m takeover by the owner of the Manchester Ship Canal. Mersey Docks & Harbour Company said the takeover by Peel Ports was an “attractive outcome” for shareholders. Peel, which also runs Clydeport, Scotland, will acquire ports at Liverpool; Heysham, Lancs; and the Medway towns of Sheerness and Chatham. The tie-up, which still requires the backing of Mersey shareholders, is expected to be completed in late July.

The Mersey Docks and Harbour Company, which owns and operates the Port of Liverpool, has invested more than ?100 million over the past five years, including eur25 million on expanding and upgrading the Seaforth Container Terminal. Other companies have made their own seven-figure investments to secure even greater prominence in the markets they serve. Cargo passing through the Port of Liverpool is at an all-time high. More than 32 million tonnes of trade crossed the quays in 2004 and with millions of pounds being spent on providing new facilities and enhanced services, the prospect is for further growth.

The ports operator, which already owns 25% of Mersey, had been in talks about a deal since February after trumping a private equity firm with an offer now known to be eur10 a share when including an 18p dividend payment.

The combination of Mersey with Peel’s existing port operations offers exciting future opportunities for both groups. In March, Mersey unveiled underlying profits of ?55.6m in 2004, up from ?54.2m last time, and which it said provided a solid base for progress. In addition to its four ports, Mersey has a shipping division trading as BG Freight Line as well as the Roadferry logistics and transport business.



[color=#ffffff]Mersey Docks & Harbour Company

Port of Liverpool UK [/color]

Peel first approached Mersey in January with its bid proposal. Both companies have major property interests, with Peel owning assets including the Glasgow Harbour development, one of the largest in the UK. The operational and investment property interests of Mersey Docks & Harbour Company include 800 hectares of dockland at Liverpool and 354 hectares at the Medway ports.

The enlarged ports group will have a total turnover in excess of ?400m and more than 2,100 employees. As part of Wednesday’s deal, Peel has agreed to invest ?18.7m into the Mersey pension schemes to eliminate deficits in four main pension plans. Peel Ports is a division of Peel Holdings, which has interests including Trafford Park in Greater Manchester and Liverpool’s John Lennon Airport. The offer needs to be approved by 75% of Mersey’s non-Peel shareholders and gain formal clearance from the Office of Fair Trading.

Source: BBC News

What Is the Real Status of Wall-mart RFID efforts?

Supply Chain Technology & RFID

ARC Research discovered that public reporting on the status of Wal-Marts RFID efforts has been highly misleading. The impression conveyed to the public by many pundits is that all Wal-Mart SKUs bound for three of the retailer’s Texas distribution centers, from the top 100 suppliers, were RFID-tagged started January 1st. This is incorrect. In fact, there was a set of negotiations between Wal-Mart’s top 100 suppliers and the retail behemoth. In these negotiations,’Wal-Mart has shown more flexibility than many anticipated.


Wal-Mart mandated that, by January 2005, its top 100 suppliers had to apply passive RFID tags based on EPC-global standards to cases and pallets headed toward three specific distribution centers (DCs) in Texas. The impact of this will eventually be felt on virtually all manufacturers of consumer goods because Wal-Mart?s moves in RFID are being copied by other retailers.

The focus right now is on Wal-Mart, and the question people are asking is: What is the status of your efforts? The more interesting questions should be directed at Wal-Marts suppliers. Those questions are: How successful were you in your negotiations with Wal- Mart? What does it take to do well in those negotiations?

Source: ARC Research Steve Banker

TNT eyes acquisition in Asia & at Royal Mail’s GLS

Mergers & acquisitions

TNT NV may soon acquire a shipping company in Asia to expand its network there and is interested in taking over Royal Mail Group PLC’s unit GLS Holding, German weekly magazine Wirtschafts Woche said in a report to be published tomorrow, citing chief executive Peter Bakker.

‘The US is UPS- and Fedex-land,’ Bakker told the magazine in an interview. ‘And whoever thinks, as Deutsche Post does, he can be profitable there with a 6-8 pct market share is wrong.’

Deutsche Post World Net AG’s package delivery arm DHL last month said it does not want to chase US market share from rival UPS and Federal Express and is reining in its ambitions in North America.

Bakker also said he can imagine taking over Royal Mail’s GLS unit as an independent parcel service, adding the company is ‘looking into every interesting opportunity for an acquisition’.