AP Moller-Maersk is in the throes of a $30bn-plus investment programme which could help to double the share price of the world?s largest shipping group by 2010. This is one conclusion of a new in-depth assessment of AP Moller-Maersk?s prospects by Dansk Equities, which also believes the Danish company is targeting a 25% market share in container shipping.

The bank?s research suggests this ambition could embrace the takeover of another major rival, with Germany?s Hapag-Lloyd the most likely candidate.

Dansk Equities also foresees that AP Moller-Maersk?s $15bn investment programme in APM Terminals could elevate this subsidiary to the position of the world?s largest container facility operator.

AP Moller-Maersk is also committed to a $15bn fleet expansion, with some of this expenditure expected to help the group achieve a top five position in the liquefied natural gas carrier market by the end of 2009.

Dansk Equities comments: ?The Maersk Group had no net interest bearing debt by the end of 2004, but it has become more aggressive in the pursuit of its long-term growth targets, and we see a massive value creation from changing the financial leverage towards a 40% gearing level going forward.

?The long term value creation impact will support the share price towards DKr100,000 ($17,070) by 2010, we believe.?

The group?s share price, which has come under pressure this year as investors focused on problems in liner shipping, stood at DKr50,400 when the research was issued. AP Moller-Maersk has been assigned a ?buy? rating and its ?fair value? raised by 5% to DKr60,000 to reflect higher asset values in shipping.

Dansk Equities believes the equity market ?will be surprised by the magnitude? of Maersk?s expansion?.

The research argues that AP Moller-Maersk embarked on a new expansion strategy at the end of 2004, although this has not been publicly articulated.

Last year, the group spent DKr35bn acquiring P&O Nedlloyd and the UK oil assets of Kerr McGee and the research says these deals ?should be seen as the first of a series?. This year, AP Moller-Maersk has launched a $500m bid for Australian tug operator Adsteam Marine.

In shipping, the group?s orderbook stands at $14.7bn, of which $7.8bn is earmarked for new liner vessels. Dansk Equities says Maersk Tankers fleet will be more than doubled. This applies to both the number of vessels ? 57 are on order ? and its value, with capital expenditure of $3.5bn against an existing fleet of $3.2bn.

The research also says AP Moller-Maersk?s oil division is showing its ?true earnings capacity with the net take of production after taxation forecast to increase by 30% in 2009?. By then production is expected to rise to 429,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day from 325,000 barrels a day in 2005.

Dansk Equities is part of the Dansk Bank, an associated company of the AP Moller-Maersk group.

Source: miti@gov.mt Eurinvestor

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